| Most people understand the basic concept of horse | | | | 20% is a safe amount in most cases. I base this |
| racing handicapping for profit. You have to bet enough | | | | amount on the old 80-20 rule, in other words, 80% of |
| to cover your losses. The way you determine that | | | | the races have logical results while 20% are illogical. |
| amount when you handicap a race is to figure each | | | | What do I mean by illogical? When you are |
| horse's chances of winning and compute that into a | | | | handicapping a horse race you usually have an idea of |
| morning line, or in other words, odds for each horse. | | | | each horse's chances of winning, call it a probability. |
| When you get better than break even odds, you | | | | After the race, even if the horse that you bet on didn't |
| make a profit, so you only bet on a horse when the | | | | win, you can look at the race and see that the horse |
| odds are high enough. | | | | that beat yours did have a legitimate chance of |
| It sounds so simple, but is very difficult. Some people | | | | winning based on its recent form. However, about one |
| use computer simulators to crunch numbers and | | | | out of five races will mystify most handicappers. A |
| determine from a data base of thousands of race | | | | horse who seemingly had no chance of winning will |
| results, which bets are profitable. The problem that we | | | | win, usually as a long shot. |
| often run into in life, however, is that while things work | | | | While you and the rest of the public may not know |
| out on paper, they don't always work in real life. | | | | how the horse won, there usually is a good answer, it |
| Consider the "X" factor. | | | | is just something that isn't in the past performances. It |
| Most people understand that the race track takes out | | | | may be that the horse had been ill and is now feeling |
| a certain percentage from the pools. It is called the vig. | | | | better, It may be that the trainer tried a new method of |
| The vig may be anywhere from 15% up to 25% or | | | | shoeing or any other thing that isn't listed in the racing |
| more, depending upon the type of bet. To start figuring | | | | form. |
| out how much you have to win in order to cover your | | | | So when you figure the amount that you must win in |
| costs and to make a profit, you have to figure in the | | | | order to make a profit, figure in the vig and also the x |
| vig. | | | | factor. Then figure in the profit percentage on top of |
| But there is another deduction you have to make as | | | | that. |
| well. It is difficult to put an actual figure on it, but I think | | | | |