| Betting On Horses – The Analytical Approach | | | | There are so many ways to specialize:- |
| All professional horse racing punters will give you the | | | | • Specific race tracks. |
| same advice - making a living from horse racing | | | | • Higher grade racing. (more reliable results) |
| betting is not just about identifying lots of winning | | | | Further choices for specializing are limitless:- |
| horses. | | | | • 2 year olds juvenile racing. |
| In developing a strategy you must identify ideal horse | | | | • Sprints racing. |
| races, ideal bets, and ideal prices. Only this way can | | | | • National hunt hurdles and chases. |
| any racing punter expect to get the edge over the | | | | • Racing over a specific distance. |
| bookmaker or the other punters working the betting | | | | • Flat seasons. |
| exchanges. | | | | • All-weather. |
| Its interesting to note that most successful horse | | | | • Handicap racing. |
| racing punters come from a rather similar background | | | | • Conditions racing. |
| that results in them adopting an analytical approach to | | | | • Draw bias. |
| their betting. | | | | And many more. |
| They are often people whose careers are based | | | | You will not be able to analyze them all and you must |
| around analyzing large data sets. Often they are from | | | | make the most of the best form periods. |
| financial backgrounds, stock market traders and | | | | For example if you are specializing on the flat the high |
| experts, information technology professionals or other | | | | summer season is crucial with evening racing to add in |
| computer and data operators. | | | | as a further complication. |
| So many punters who bet "emotionally" rely | | | | As I say, what is most important is that you select a |
| on terribly imprecise snippets of data from uncontrolled | | | | specific type or genre of racing. |
| sources. | | | | Whatever the subset of racing that you enjoy most |
| For example an emotional bet may be the results of | | | | should become your specialty and by specializing, your |
| hearsay, mates in the pub or a celebrity pundit on TV | | | | ability to acquire knowledge and process the massive |
| saying that you need for example "a high draw in | | | | data sets required will be tolerable and even enjoyable. |
| the 2000 Guineas". | | | | My techniques in the Betfair Trading Formula, |
| But what does this throw away comment actually | | | | particularly dutching and bookmaking show how to look |
| mean when transferred toa/ A list of odds mentally | | | | for race types that have the right betting |
| converted into probabilities of winning.b/ Actually | | | | "shape" in terms of starting price and this is |
| making a profit from placing a bet on a race horse at | | | | a sound fundamental approach. |
| your local betting shop or on Betfair. | | | | The main determinant in the shape of the starting |
| Race Selection | | | | prices for a horse race is the strength of the |
| On any given day there are at least 4 horse racing | | | | opposition. |
| meets in the UK and at weekends there may be up to | | | | For example rather than just being a clear-cut favorite |
| 6. Racing Post racecards indicate on average around | | | | there may be several horses in a race that show |
| 30 races on any given day. | | | | recent improvement and progression therefore making |
| It is not physically or mentally possible to even attempt | | | | the race more competitive. |
| to analyze this many horse races. | | | | This can lead to great opportunities for multi horse |
| You need a quick method that will reduce the number | | | | betting – dutching. |
| of horse races that you are looking at as even remote | | | | For the betting exchange layers, a competitive race |
| betting opportunities. | | | | may lead them toward laying against weak favourites. |
| In layman’s terms you need to specialize. | | | | In one of my own professional techniques - Dutching |
| During the process of specializing on specific types of | | | | against weak favourites - I show how when you find a |
| horse racing you may start by asking yourself - which | | | | weak market leader you can bet the progressive |
| types of horse race are going to be the most | | | | horses against the favourite. |
| profitable? | | | | This is an outstanding strategy as oppose to straight |
| From a business perspective this is obviously a | | | | lay betting. As I have explained before, with lay betting |
| sensible approach, but in reality this is the wrong | | | | you are not always obtaining good value. |
| approach. | | | | In the end it’s all about creating a strategy and |
| The reality is that you should specialize in types or | | | | betting methodically to your own style and strengths. |
| aspects of horse racing that you get most satisfaction | | | | These are the primary characteristics for punters who |
| from watching or analyzing. | | | | ultimately turn professional or expand their betting to |
| I say this for no other reason than that you will be | | | | become a profitable hobby or part time business. |
| watching a lot of these horse races and if you are not | | | | And even more satisfying, people who bet |
| enjoying watching and analyzing your horse racing | | | | methodically with a plan are those that the |
| then you will not last long in the betting business. | | | | bookmakers fear the most. |